It’s interesting to watch the Governments all around the world & their strategic execution concerning both — fighting COVID-19 however also reopening the economy.
The fight between the pseudo experts in virology, epidemiology and pseudo experts in economics is really heating up. And it also became an ideological fight of two camps — who do not understand — both are part of ONE equation.
It’s like a fight of two dogs. While one was absent at the beginning of the crisis (WHO spitting some non sense or COVID-19 models were utterly wrong); the other dogs can formulate nice economy defects projection — none of them has a real vision — how to reopen the Economy with COVID-19.
At the end of the fight, the usual happens again, and again: the common people will be collateral damage. The pretence of the “experts caring” will end again as: We’re sorry, we were wrong..
R0>1.0 = Strategic priority is war on virus.
R0<1.0 = Strategic priority is war for the economy.
The R0 is virus reproduction rate. If R0 = 3.5, one person infects 3.5 persons. If R0 = 0.8, we are winning in a war, as one person infects less than 1, and thus we stopped the exponential growth.
I strongly believe that the weaker the leader — the more risk averse approach will be taken, and the later the start of the economy. The weaker the leader, the larger the denial of the virus as a “everyday life fact” and that we should start to learn to live with and accept it.
The strategy of locking people for a year and wait for vaccine is pure non sense. It tells you a lot about the plan to reopen the economy — there is none. Once you decide to reopen the economy — you have to:
- have a vision & clarity
- have a plan
- have a process & toolkit for execution of the plan & the overarching vision
The clarity is still missing from most government, however there are some offshoots to follow: South Korea, Japan, Israel, USA or Germany.
The response to virus differed across countries, however so will the response of reopening the economy and “life with the virus”.
It still amazes me, that we compare this event to Spanish flu1918–20 or whatever. Like there are no technological inventions we could utilise and we learned nothing. It’s like a denial of the obvious.
In other thread:
Balaji S. Srinivasan advocating for green & red zones already a month ago:
Other countries have various pros & cons for this approach. The internal capability of US is much broader, than of a smaller countries. But also their governments can act faster not being burden by federal & state division of power.
Let’s see. But one thing is clearer and more pressing than ever:
There is a time to shift gears in strategic priorities of government from fighting COVID-19 virus war — to form a vision of fighting for the economy.
That vision will define unemployment rates, national debt rate, interests rates, currency rates, government & private debt loads, pension systems stability and poverty rates.
Capitalism does not work in 12 months shutdown.
Reopen the economy, with the people, for the people..