Lockdown vs ReOpening — Fight of Ideologies
Rule №1: Nobody is interested in truth. Truth serves no group, but individual.
Are political parties and leaders divided on reopening of the economy based on ideologies or data? How much data is enough? Do we understand that absence of evidence is not same as evidence of absence? Do we need months of data in exchange to burn the economy? Summer coming, stupid!
Searching for Courage..
..not found
Are leaders divided on those who act from strength and those who act from weakness — rationally? Or it’s just when they are hit with ambiguity, the weak ones shit their pants and play “Cover You Ass” politics? In disguise of “saving the lives” as execution of real vision is really, really tough — however the right thing to do..
Beautifully said..
Here are the questions:
What is the death rates comparison — per age groups — for common flu and COVID-19?
How are the death rates under 50yo comparable?
In February, all idiotic headlines were — “coronavirus is just like a common flu”.
In March — we all seen this story & headline: “Coronavirus is more deadly than common flu”:
Note the date of US data in the image are for 18-Mar-20. Here is the problem with the data to that specific date:
- only some 100,000 test were performed
- only some 10,000 cases identified*
- only some 173 deaths**
- cases/tests = 10% are positive
The sample is just too small.
*real number of cases = unknown
**the deaths also lags behind the cases for up to weeks, however are better source of truth than “identified cases”. You cannot hide deaths, while you can’t identify all cases.
Since then almost everything went 100X (28-Apr-20):
- 5,500,000 tests performed (50X)
- 1,000,000 cases positive (100X)
- 56,000 deaths (300X)*
- cases/tests = 20% are positive**
*there is both — a lag of case vs death and also — you find a death even if you don’t measure.
The more you test, the more people you find out are/were positive.
The more people you find out are/were positive — the lower the fatality rates.
Here is another one — this one from pre 5-Mar-20:
How do you know the case fatality rate on 5-Mar-20, as every state is literally screaming:
We do not have enough tests!!!
How do you know the real fatality at the beginning of the outbreak? You cannot..
Another one:
Another one:
Ok, so the base fatality numbers for COVID-19 are wrong, ok. So let’s come back to common flu.
COMMON FLU
Less than 3,000 dies a year is US at age 0 - 49. Or:
Three people in 100,000 die between 0 and 49 year olds.
Back to COVID-19.
Let’s never forget one thing:
Deaths should be real truths* but reported cases are limited truths**.
*deaths are also being mis-reported (too high — all patients with COVID-19 are showed into statistics, even with secondary critical diseases; and too low — as some deaths are missing from official data).
**the number of reported cases is a denominator in case fatality — if cases are under detected -> the fatality looks rather high.
One caveat, the mortality rates are to date of 15-Apr-20. Both deaths and cases will be increasing. So let’s do a snapshot.
Deaths to 15-Apr-20: 35,000. Wave #1 expectation is double that (75k).
All Following charts are from Elad Gil, more here & here. I’ll just leave it like that, with few comments.
See the under 50 yo?
- <40 yo -> 44 died in Italy. Under 40 is almost half population in Italy.
- <40 yo -> 102 died in US. Under 40 is precisely half the population in US.
- <50 yo -> 197 died in Italy.
- <50 yo -> 319 died in US.
Common flu kills 3,000 people in US in the below 50 age group.
The over & under for age groups.
Here you are looking at Case Fatality Rate across age groups (e.g. 30–39, or others).
30–39: CFR = 0.4%
30–39: CFR = 0.1%
30–39: CFR = 0.2%
0–60: CFR = 0.2% !!
30–39: CFR = 0.1%
30–39: CFR = 0.1%
30–39: CFR = 0.2%
30–39: CFR = 0.3%
NEW YORK CITY
These data are both interesting and incomplete. I see three outcomes:
Get real..
You cannot suppress the younger generation = Riots incoming.. They’re not stupid or that passive. They start online, then go offline. Economic pressure from blue collars gets also to white collars.
You have to start to live along COVID-19, as “Cover Your Ass” policy is killing the economy. You can only play stupid and play defence for so long. There will be reckoning.
Next wave will definitely come. The question is not if — but when, and the question now is: how are you preparing your offence, not defence. Hope you’re not sheltering all again for exchange of another 10% dump in GDP or 10% increase in unemployment..
It’s only April, the worst is yet to come..
