In Hell We Trust (part 1)
Last three months in tech had been pretty hard internally. It’s gonna get much harder and much uglier going forward. More & more tech companies will run out of capital and never raise any more money. The majority of those companies die around H2/2023, H1/2024.
From March 2021:
Why it’s happening? The whole market structure is changing, interest rates were just a part of it.
Duration over Growth arbitrage
It has never been easier to start a company in history of mankind while at the same time — it’s has became increasingly harder to BUILD a company. One thinks growth matters while DURATION is the key to any long term business value.
Irrelevant things got funded, people who should have never become founders or investors became founders or investors. The competition is getting harder and the best teams, the best operators & capital allocators will squeeze everyone else out. Nature will eventually heal itself. Dog eat Dog was not only a band name..
I noticed an interesting phenomena. It’s not anything new or anything that hasn’t happened many times in history. When times are good everyone is surfing on the way up, cheering, clapping and running victory laps. Too much booze, and then a headache..
It’s when table stakes get high enough and going gets tough enough — the knives come up.
No one is going after the bones for a cup of rice..
The frog is fine, enjoying the hot pot until it’s too late and the frog boils and starts to die. A metaphor, we do not put human into hot pots, their own brain is quite the hot pot though.
The pressure has been building all over the 2022 — therefore what’s gonna happen in H2/23 and H1/24 is just a mere consequence of what came much earlier than that.
What is coming is various stages of Hell.
The Hell is completely imaginary but it’s gonna look very real to lots of people in tech.
When the surroundings around you are under attack the brain will try to protect the body. Capital and runway starts to decrease, founders and management problems that stayed under the radar will rise up to surface, the investors will become impatient, the employees will start to feel more and more pressure, the delivery suffers, the competition for survival increases, the cancellations or revenue targets gets under pressure.
CEOs under pressure may say the hell with it all. It’s time for shifting gears — to a wartime CEO mindset.
The relationships, the mental and physical well being of your closest circle will question the confidence, once untouchable — the paradise start to change to a walk of glass while feeling your own blood. Almost compared to a dance on a razor’s edge.
The clear image of the Hell is forming.
Although The Hell is completely imaginary — it’s gonna look very real. Your partners and shareholders problems will get magnified ten-fold. Trust issues starts to come to surface and promises get broken. Personal relationships will suffer.
The brain will start to protect the body and override feeling and completely take over the process. The brain will start to protect your whole existence.
The brain will start to override your whole awareness.
Sometimes, in times like these the phrase “it’s lonely at the top” — hits the nail on a head. And we did not start even talking about layers yet and bankruptcies. The brain will start to question the level of the Hell. It’s it really Hell level 4, or can the brain & thoughts push you to a Hell level 20?
When someone says “touch the grass” they really mean kicking a ball under the sun with family or friends.
Enjoy the silence..
The Hell is complete.
She said “Son, this is the road to Hell”. [lyrics by Chris Rea]
The Hell is completely imaginary, but boy — it really does feel 100% real!
The way out of Hell is the same way as the way to get into the Hell.
There is no Hell.
However — if you decide to keep believing in Hell, there is a great guide — Dante’s Inferno: Nine Circles of Hell:
Inspired by recent events over the last three months and thus some are aware of what lies ahead. Also hope it send some good vibes over the ocean..
p.s.: love to jazz with curious people in any shape or form. Feel free to hit me up on twitter.