Mar 30, 2020
Coronavirus Peak Fear
How does a peak fear look like when billions of people are locked down in their homes and watching pessimistic news 24/7? What is the truth and what is the perception only?
The Peak Fear
NEWS
The truth
- Great Depression unemployment topped 25% in 1933.
- Government will do everything possible to ensure this does not happen. Be it monetary (printing money), fiscal stimulus (create jobs) and reopen economy as soon as possible. Capital is deployed and requires return (incentives). At whatever the costs now, that will have to be repaid later..
- You cannot extrapolate total unemployment from exponential curve (3+ million new unemployment claims in US). Look at where exactly the job loses come from (e.g. local, hourly, etc.).
- The unemployment goes up, while projecting 30% is manic, political, fear driven and agenda driven.
Truth
- A tragedy.
- A story.
- Individual death is a tragedy, suicidal rates is statistics.
- Was it coincidence? Was it stress? Was it margin call? No idea.
Truth
- The more you test — the more cases you have. It’s an equation.
- The China cases & deaths “accounting” is not comparable.
- The US is getting the best data on what’s really going on.
Truth
- Maybe yes, maybe no. The key term is — if it goes unchecked. It’s like saying a kid will be able to read IF he or she does not learn to read..
Truth:
- It’s the top end of the forecast.
- Forecast can be wrong and more people could die.
- What you do not read is — how many lives have been saved due to mitigations (social distancing, quarantine, old drugs usage, face masks, etc.).
Good news headlines do not sell newspapers & ads.
Fear does..
INDEXES
DAX dives into 2013 territory — Peak Fear in Europe. Business stopped. Europe under lockdown. Can it get worse? Why & how?
European corona virus cases just peaking and some countries already behind the peak..
S&P dives into 2017 territory — Peak Fear may come with peak cases, may not. NY is peaking soon. Part of economy is targeting reopening in April.
Same Media just a 1–2 months ago..
Now again:
How does a peak fear look like when billions of people are locked down in their homes and watching (pessimistic) news 24/7? What is the truth and what is the perception only?
What is perception and what is reality?
What is the way out?
- Testing for coronavirus, and testing for antibodies. And tracking people (app/device).
- Reopening businesses — green zones and quarantine — red zones. Forget cinema, travel, events, gym or school for now.
- Daily fast testing is the new vaccine.
- Eventually there will be solution for real time testing (device + app). The new bio surveillance system.
She was exponential..
