Coronavirus Daily New Cases — Are Peaking in Europe


Some countries are behind the peak, some are peaking and some will be over the peak in next days or weeks.

Charts from Andrzej Leszkiewicz (@avatorl).

Measured cases do not equal all cases in each country as you cannot really to really each & every case. However the deaths or serious cases — cannot be mis-represented that easily — those are much closer to reality (despite being a lagging indicator).

Also if country A tests 10x more than country B (per capita) — paradoxically — that country will show more cases and that can skew countries comparisons.

Cases & Deaths per Country

Italy & Spain

France & Germany

Czech Republic & Slovakia

Netherlands & Switzerland

Austria & Belgium

Croatia & Finland

Peaking soon..


And the 2 most interesting comparisons of countries — as they both test the most -> 100 000+ tests/day = most data. Both flattening.

Germany & USA

Also great models from US. There are model for each states as well.

US capacity planning

US deaths estimate

What is next?

You have to restart the economy.

The economy cannot be restarted without bio surveillance system. You have to ensure millions of people can come back to work and millions of consumers come back to market.

One person can infect a whole factory, a mall, a subway, a restaurant or a school.

One person can be COVID 19 negative one day, and positive the next.

One person, one nation

The best possible solution is a test & track system for millions, whether it’ll be a combination of daily tests, pooling tests + tracking apps or something else like immunity certificates or drugs that work, etc. At the same time you continue the hunt for positives and kill the spread fires. Bio surveillance system is born, because one cannot let to destroy the economy and people’s lives.

She was exponential..



Martin Skakala,

Life is a video game. Full of laugh & anxiety. Choose your ammo wisely.